Jeanfromfillmore
04-28-2010, 03:36 AM
Immigration complicates races
The outcry surrounding the recent passage of a restrictive Arizona law aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration is thrusting the combustible issue back into the national spotlight, a development that could have serious political consequences for members of Congress on both sides of the aisle.
In the House, Democrats appear to have more to lose from revisiting immigration reform, since many of the party’s most vulnerable members hail from culturally conservative districts. For those members — including Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), all of whom were swept into office in 2006 — establishing border security bona fides proved to be key elements in their successful campaigns.
At the same time, there are a number of targeted Democratic members representing Hispanic-heavy districts who could benefit from Republican overreaching on immigration, which could have the effect of energizing Democratic turnout.
In the Senate, the picture is different. Republicans have much to lose from a debate that alienates Hispanic voters because some of the GOP’s most promising pickup opportunities are in states with sizable Hispanic populations — California, Nevada and Florida, among them — where support of the Arizona crackdown could mean the loss of critical Hispanic votes.
Here is POLITICO’s list of seven politicians with much to gain or lose politically over the issue:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Reid has been a leading Democratic voice for immigration legislation, even though most of his colleagues would be content to deal just with financial regulatory reform and energy legislation. The political logic is simple: Reid, who is struggling in polls, needs the Democratic base to turn out in large numbers to hang on — and a significant part of that base is the state’s sizable (24 percent) Hispanic population.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Once a champion of comprehensive immigration reform, McCain has become a born-again border security hawk as he fends off a serious primary challenge from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.), an outspoken opponent of illegal immigration. The former GOP presidential nominee has expressed measured support for the Arizona law in the wake of its passage, a U-turn that could present an opportunity for a Democratic challenger to make inroads with the state’s considerable number of Hispanic voters in November.
Marco Rubio. The Senate candidate with the most to lose in the immigration debate is Republican Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American rising star who has captured the imagination of the conservative grass roots in his Florida primary bid. His immigration-friendly position has evolved since his tenure as state House speaker toward the more punitive approach favored by the GOP base.
Florida has 720,000 of the country’s 10.8 million illegal immigrants, according to Department of Homeland Security estimates, making reform a volatile issue for the immigration restrictionists who constitute part of the state GOP base. But Rubio, with his background as the son of an immigrant, must tread lightly on the issue if he expects to capture the state’s significant Hispanic vote, particularly the concentrations of Hispanic voters outside the Miami area.
Rubio released a statement Tuesday expressing “concerns about this legislation,” even as he offered support for tough border security measures as part of immigration reform.
“While I don’t believe Arizona’s policy was based on anything other than trying to get a handle on our broken borders, I think aspects of the law, especially [those] dealing with ‘reasonable suspicion,’ are going to put our law enforcement officers in an incredibly difficult position,” Rubio said. “It could also unreasonably single out people who are here legally, including many American citizens. Throughout American history and throughout this administration, we have seen that when government is given an inch, it takes a mile.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36442.html#ixzz0mNySzw5n
The outcry surrounding the recent passage of a restrictive Arizona law aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration is thrusting the combustible issue back into the national spotlight, a development that could have serious political consequences for members of Congress on both sides of the aisle.
In the House, Democrats appear to have more to lose from revisiting immigration reform, since many of the party’s most vulnerable members hail from culturally conservative districts. For those members — including Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), all of whom were swept into office in 2006 — establishing border security bona fides proved to be key elements in their successful campaigns.
At the same time, there are a number of targeted Democratic members representing Hispanic-heavy districts who could benefit from Republican overreaching on immigration, which could have the effect of energizing Democratic turnout.
In the Senate, the picture is different. Republicans have much to lose from a debate that alienates Hispanic voters because some of the GOP’s most promising pickup opportunities are in states with sizable Hispanic populations — California, Nevada and Florida, among them — where support of the Arizona crackdown could mean the loss of critical Hispanic votes.
Here is POLITICO’s list of seven politicians with much to gain or lose politically over the issue:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Reid has been a leading Democratic voice for immigration legislation, even though most of his colleagues would be content to deal just with financial regulatory reform and energy legislation. The political logic is simple: Reid, who is struggling in polls, needs the Democratic base to turn out in large numbers to hang on — and a significant part of that base is the state’s sizable (24 percent) Hispanic population.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Once a champion of comprehensive immigration reform, McCain has become a born-again border security hawk as he fends off a serious primary challenge from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.), an outspoken opponent of illegal immigration. The former GOP presidential nominee has expressed measured support for the Arizona law in the wake of its passage, a U-turn that could present an opportunity for a Democratic challenger to make inroads with the state’s considerable number of Hispanic voters in November.
Marco Rubio. The Senate candidate with the most to lose in the immigration debate is Republican Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American rising star who has captured the imagination of the conservative grass roots in his Florida primary bid. His immigration-friendly position has evolved since his tenure as state House speaker toward the more punitive approach favored by the GOP base.
Florida has 720,000 of the country’s 10.8 million illegal immigrants, according to Department of Homeland Security estimates, making reform a volatile issue for the immigration restrictionists who constitute part of the state GOP base. But Rubio, with his background as the son of an immigrant, must tread lightly on the issue if he expects to capture the state’s significant Hispanic vote, particularly the concentrations of Hispanic voters outside the Miami area.
Rubio released a statement Tuesday expressing “concerns about this legislation,” even as he offered support for tough border security measures as part of immigration reform.
“While I don’t believe Arizona’s policy was based on anything other than trying to get a handle on our broken borders, I think aspects of the law, especially [those] dealing with ‘reasonable suspicion,’ are going to put our law enforcement officers in an incredibly difficult position,” Rubio said. “It could also unreasonably single out people who are here legally, including many American citizens. Throughout American history and throughout this administration, we have seen that when government is given an inch, it takes a mile.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36442.html#ixzz0mNySzw5n